Tomorrow’s weekly update on jobless claims is expected to report a modest decline from the previous estimate, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. New claims are projected to slip 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 for the week through January 5. That’s roughly in line with consensus forecasts via surveys of economists.

Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:

ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the data series in R via the “forecast” package.
ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the data in R via the “forecast” package.