Macro Briefing: 7 November 2023

* Israel to maintain security control in Gaza ‘indefinitely’: Netanyahu
* “Stock market’s correction is over,” advises Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research
* Fed has more work to do to control inflation: Fed’s Kashkari
* China reports its first-ever foreign investment deficit in Q3
* South Korea bans short selling until June 2024
* US natural gas prices drops sharply on surging supply, mild weather
* Global economic activity stalls in October via global GDP proxy:

The Fed is done raising rates, predicts Larry Hatheway, co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics and a former economist at GAM Investments. “The October employment report did it. The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is over,” he writes in Barron’s. “After 11 rate increases since March 2022, totaling five percentage points, the Fed ought to be finished raising rates. Inflation is falling and growth is slowing. The chances that the Fed will achieve its 2% inflation target within the next 12 months have now improved significantly.” For the moment, the 2-year Treasury yield agrees. This widely-followed proxy for rate expectations has eased recently after trending higher for several months: