Macro Briefing: 7 January 2025

US factory orders fell more than expected in November. New orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.4% compared with October, marking the fourth monthly decline in the past four. For the year-over-year trend, factory orders have slumped 1.9% in November, remaining in a tight range around zero change that’s prevailed over the past 18 months.

President-elect Trump rejects reporting that he will pare back his plans for tariffs on US imports. “The story in the Washington Post, quoting so-called anonymous sources, which don’t exist, incorrectly states that my tariff policy will be pared back. That is wrong,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Global business activity accelerated in December, based on PMI survey data. The main driver: the service sector, which offset weakness in manufacturing. Growth rose to a four-month high and new order intakes strengthened. The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI Output Index, a GDP proxy, picked up last month, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of positive readings.

US corporate bankruptcies rose to the highest level since 2010. At least 686 US firms filed for bankruptcy last year, roughly 8% more vs. 2023, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Eurozone inflation quickened in December, a second month of hotter pricing pressure. Consumer prices rose by an annual 2.4% in the currency bloc, up from 2.2% in November. Inflation in services remains the biggest contributor, up 4.0 percent annually.

US service business activity continued to rise in December, according to PMI survey data. “The US economy ended 2024 on a high according to the latest business surveys,” says Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Business activity in the vast services economy surged higher in the closing month of 2024 on fuller order books and rising optimism about prospects for the year ahead.”





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