Macro Briefing: 5 December 2022

* Stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps pressure on Fed to extend tight policy
* China’s services activity in November declines at steepest level since May
* US manufacturing orders in China have dropped 40 percent
* Eurozone retail sales in October post biggest monthly decline so far in 2022
* OPEC maintains oil-supply cuts as West tightens sanctions on Russian oil
* BP bets big on hydrogen as fuel of the future
* Developing nations facing a debt crisis in coming months
* Global food prices continued falling in November
* No actively run mutual funds consistently beat their benchmark, study finds
* US payrolls beat forecasts and post solid gain for November:

The Fed still needs to lift interest rates more than expected to tame inflation, says Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. “We have a long way to go to get inflation down” to the Fed’s inflatino target, he tells Bloomberg. “I suspect they’re going to need more increases in interest rates than the market is now judging or than they’re now saying.” “Six is certainly a scenario we can write,” he reasoned for the terminal percentage rates rate for the Fed’s target benchmark. “And that tells me that five is not a good best-guess.”

The bond market “offers a unique entry point for investors looking to allocate to credit,” advises Apollo Global Management. The firm observes that “yields have surged to historical highs across fixed-income asset classes, with US Treasury and investment grade yields well wide to their 10-year average. Today, US high yield bonds and leveraged loans offer returns that are 300 to 400 basis points above their 10-year average. The second chart below dimensions this opportunity in historical terms, as yields today sit at the loftiest levels in almost 15 years.”