Macro Briefing: 28 October 2022

* European Central Bank hikes interest rates by 75 basis points
* German economy grows slightly in Q3, defies forecasts of recession
* Fossil-fuel demand may peak in a few years, IEA advises
* Elon Musk takes control of Twitter and fires top executives
* Amazon shares tumble on weak Q4 earnings outlook
* Durable goods orders in US rose in September but momentum is fading
* US jobless claims edged up last week but remain near historically low levels
* US economy recovers in Q3, posting solid 2.6% increase after first-half decline:

International discord is a threat to global economic growth. “There is a level of weaponizing the economy that we have not seen for, perhaps, decades,” says Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “You’ve got G-20 economies actively trying to harm other G-20 economies. This is a different world.”

Economists now expect Federal Reserve to hike rates to 5% by March, a new Bloomberg survey reports: “Economists see the Fed as determined not to pivot too soon as it fights against an inflation rate at a 40-year high. The shift to a higher peak rate would reflect consumer-price growth, excluding food and energy, that came in hotter than expected for the past two months. The survey of 40 economists was conducted Oct. 21-26.”