US jobless claims edged lower last week, holding at a middling level relative to recent history. Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 224,000, seasonally adjusted, which reflects a low number compared with the historical record and suggests ongoing growth, or at least stability, for the labor market.
Pending home sales for the US rebounded in February. “Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
The US trade deficit in goods narrowed in February. The rise in exports could ease expectations for a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report.
Gold continues to set new record highs, rising to $3,114 an ounce in Friday trading. “Uncertainty around Trump administration trade policies could continue to push the USD lower, further supporting gold prices near-term,” advise analysts at Bank of America in a note. “In our view, a broad rebalancing of America’s twin deficits could be bullish gold too.”
US growth is slowing, but recession risk still appears low, according to analysis by TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager. A research note published Thursday advised: “Several economic indicators that are updated frequently suggest the start of a US recession still doesn’t look like a high risk in the immediate future. The relatively upbeat profile is based on hard data via three sources: Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI), Philadelphia Fed’s ADS Index, and the Labor Dept’s weekly jobless claims report. Recent surveys paint a more worrisome outlook, but until the hard data agrees it’s reasonable to view recession forecasts cautiously.”