Macro Briefing: 27 September 2024

US initial jobless claims fell again last week, dropping to the lowest level since mid-May. The current level of new filings for unemployment benefits remains near a multi-decade low and suggests that the labor market’s outlook remains healthy for the near term.

US durable goods orders were flat in August after surging 9.9% in July. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business spending rose by 0.2%, rebounding from a modest decline in July.
Pending home sales in the US rebounded slightly in August after setting a record low. “Despite having more buying power and more for-sale home options, buyers are proceeding cautiously, perhaps waiting to see homeownership costs soften further,” advised Hannah Jones, economic research analyst at Realtor.com, in a research note.
China industrial profits plunged year-over-year in August. “There is a long-running decline in China’s industrial profits which can only get worse with Beijing failing to address its overcapacity problem,” Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer at China Beige Book, a US-based research firm, wrote in an email.
Revised data for US GDP reaffirms that the economy increased a strong 3.0% in the second quarter. “The revisions only strengthen our conviction that the US economy will continue to expand at a decent pace over the coming year, which suggests labor market conditions are unlikely to deteriorate markedly from here,” Oxford Economics deputy chief economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients.
China stock markets posts best weekly performance since 2008, fueled by new economic stimulus plans. “We are at a pivotal moment for the Chinese economy and its equities market,” said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at Abrdn, who said in a note that the US Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut would also be a significant tailwind. “Global easing conditions are poised to bolster consumption, which is a boon for China, the world’s largest exporter.”

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