The US Treasury yield curve has inverted again, based on the 10-year less 3-month spread. The difference between maturities was a slightly negative -0.03. Historically, a negative spread implies that recession risk is elevated for the near term, although this widely followed indicator doesn’t have a perfect record. The only blemishes on its record are the 1998 and mid-2022 inversions, which produced no subsequent economic recessions. Most recently, the curve inverted in 2022 and 2023 without leading to a recession.

The US is expected to default on its $36 trillion of national debt sometime between mid-July and early October if Congress doesn’t raise or suspend the debt ceiling, advises the Bipartisan Policy Center. Estimating the so-called X-date requires a fair amount of guesswork because it requires anticipating how the Treasury will manage the risk with various accounting measures to pay the government’s bills by shifting money around in various accounts.

Brick-and-mortar store closures expected to accelerate this year. “Last year we saw the highest number of closures since the pandemic,” predicts Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig in a January note. The expected number of closures is projected to more than double this year to 15,000. As of mid-January, major US retailers reported 29.6% fewer openings and 334.3% more closures in 2025 compared to the year-ago period.

Investors looking at wide range of data for clues about US economy’s path. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Some investors are turning to ‘B and C tier data,’ said Bespoke strategist George Pearkes, because they don’t want to wait for the major figures. ‘The hard data is lagged, because it’s higher quality,’ he said. ‘So if you’re trying to catch an inflection point, you would expect those alternative data sets to reflect what’s going on faster.'”

The White House is reportedly narrowing its tariff plans that are set to take effect on April 2. “Equities feel ripe for a bounce,” Bank of America’s trading desk said in a Sunday note. “Positioning hurdles have been cleared, sentiment has reset, flows are turning tailwinds and growth concerns are well flagged.”