Macro Briefing: 20 September 2023

* GOP infighting is driving the government toward a shutdown on Sep. 30
* Fed expected to leave interest rates unchanged at today’s FOMC meeting
* China’s demand for oil may peak by end of the decade
* Biden’s manufacturing agenda threatened by auto workers’ strike
* Disinflation denial is easily refuted with a careful review of the data
* US housing starts fall to 3-year low in August as building permits rise:

US stock market volatility remains low, but some analysts expect higher levels in the near term. “We haven’t seen volatility this low since pre-pandemic period,” Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop tells Yahoo Finance. JPMorgan head of investment strategy Marko Kolanovic advises in a research note: “Equity valuation faces increasing risk from higher for longer [interest rates]. Equities are up 16% YTD mostly on multiple expansion while real rates and cost of capital are moving deeper into restrictive territory. History suggests this relationship is becoming increasingly unsustainable, posing risk to the equity multiple.”