Macro Briefing: 20 January 2025

US housing starts rose for a second month in December, advancing to the highest annual rate since February. “Home builders closed 2024 with a bang following several months of more tepid paces of home construction,” says Nationwide Economist Daniel Vielhaber. The year-over-year trend, however, remains week. Despite the latest rebound, starts fell 4.4% last month vs. the year-earlier level.

Donald Trump will inherit a growing US economy as takes the oath of office today at 12 noon eastern. Next week’s release of fourth-quarter GDP data, for example, is expected to post a strong rate of expansion that’s iln line with Q3’s 3.1% increase, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest nowcast.

Trump plans blizzard of executive orders on immigration, energy policy and federal government operations in his first day as president. The president-elect on Sunday said he would sign “close to 100” executive orders within hours following his inauguration today.

US industrial production rose in December, beating estimates. The strength suggests industrial activity is stabilizing after a two-year run of weakness. The increase in output exceeded all the projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

US 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday at 4.63%, down from recent highs but still elevated relative to the previous low of roughly 3.65%:

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