Macro Briefing: 20 December 2024

US government shutdown approaches after House rejects Trump-backed spending bill. To keep the government running, the Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson must find a way to pass legislation before midnight tonight (Dec.2). Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treausry yield shot higher again yesterday (Dec. 19), rising to 4.57%, the highest since May.

The US economy grew 3.1% in the third quarter, a faster pace than previously estimated. The government revised its Q3 GDP report, lifting growth from the earlier increase of 2.8%.

US existing home sales rose in November to the highest level in over a year and a half. “Homebuying activity picked up steam in recent months as election uncertainty dissipated and house hunters realized that waiting probably isn’t going to get them a significantly lower mortgage rate anytime soon,” says Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa.

The US Leading Economic Index rose in November–the first increase since February 2022. “Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US,” says Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board.

US Treasury yield is steepest since 2022. “The weakness in the longer-end of the curve can be credited to a combination of the Fed’s hawkishness, ongoing supply angst, and a collective unwillingness to step in front of the decisive price action,” says Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. He predicts the trend of a steeper curve “still has a meaningful distance to travel before the end of 2024.”

US jobless claims pulled back last week, easing fears that the labor market was weakening more than expected. New filings for unemployment claims totaled 220,000 last week, down 22,000 from the previous week.

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