Macro Briefing: 17 October 2022

* Russia attacks Ukraine capital with more drone strikes
* China delays release of key economic data
* US assets expected to lead rebound once bear market ends, survey finds
* Strong US dollar is a factor supporting rebound in small-cap stocks
* Supply chain congestion shows signs of easing after two years of disruption
* Sterling rebounds after new UK finance minister announces policy changes
* The recent surge in rental costs continues to cool in September
* US retail spending was flat in September as prices rose sharply
* US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 5.1% in October:

The Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates to tame inflation isn’t working, says Rakeen Mabud, chief economist at the progressive Groundwork Collaborative think tank. “Supply chain bottlenecks, a volatile global energy market and rampant corporate profiteering can’t be solved by additional rate hikes.”

China’s economy faces stronger headwinds as Xi Jinping looks poised to secure third term as China’s paramount leader. “China’s growth during Xi’s decade in power is attributable mainly to the general economic approach adopted by his predecessors, which focused on rapid expansion through investment, manufacturing, and trade,” says Neil Thomas, a senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group. “But this model had reached a point of significantly diminishing returns and was increasing economic inequality, financial debt, and environmental damage.”