Macro Briefing: 17 August 2022

* Biden signs climate and health care bill into law
* Ukraine widens attacks on Russian-controlled territory in Crimea
* America’s retirement crisis is getting worse
* China’s stimulus efforts to boost slowing economy are relatively mild
* UK inflation reaches another new 40-year high in July
* US industrial production rebounds more than expected in July
* Heatwave in China is forcing factories to close
* Q3 GDP rebound for US revised down to +1.8% via GDPNow model
* US housing starts continue to weaken, falling to slowest pace since early 2021:

Strong sales at Home Depot suggest the US housing market remains healthy, at least for this retailer. CNN reports: “Home Depot (HD) said Tuesday that overall revenue was up 6.5% from a year ago, to $43.8 billion. The company reported a net profit of $5.2 billion, or $5.05 a share. That topped Wall Street’s forecasts, as professional contractors and the do-it-yourself crowd kept spending.” The stock soared on the news:

Multinational companies are rethinking China risk after surging tensions related to Taiwan. “There’s a lot of scenario thinking going on… all the way to: ‘What shall we do in case there is a war? Should we close our China operations? How can we sustain our business and overcome possible blockades?’” says Jörg Wuttke, head of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. “This little island that was always sort of simmering . . . all of a sudden is perceived in many headquarters like it’s going to be the next Ukraine.”

Will the rebound in growth stocks relative to value persist? “It’s been a two-month rally for growth, but there’s going to be a lot of risk that could bring value back into favor,” says Steve Reid at Style Analytics “Any kind of increasing rates [or] geopolitical disruption would be more awful to growth [than to value].”