Macro Briefing: 16 October 2023

* Outlook turns cautious for global economy as Israel-Gaza conflict rages
* Economic blowback from Israeli-Palestinian conflict still unclear, says Yellen
* House expected to vote Tuesday to elect a new speaker
* US oil production reached all-time high last week
* US home sales set for slowest year in more than a decade
* Rite-Aid pharmacy chain files for bankruptcy
* US consumer sentiment fell in October after two months of stability:

More than 50% of economists now think a US recession is unlikely in the near term, according to new survey data from The Wall Street Journal. “In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, from 54% on average in July to a more optimistic 48%,” the publication reports. “That is the first time they have put the probability below 50% since the middle of last year.”