Macro Briefing: 16 February 2023

* Embattled World Bank president, David Malpass, will resign early
* Homebuilder sentiment for US rebounds sharply in February
* US Q1 GDP nowcast revised up to +2.4% via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US budget deficit set to deepen to 6.9% of GDP by 2033, CBO projects
* US may default in July if debt-ceiling standoff isn’t resolved, CBO warns
* NY Fed Mfg Index rebounds in February but remains in negative territory
* US industrial output flat in January, but rises 0.8% vs. year-ago level
* US retail sales surge in January, in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms:

Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield ticks higher as government reports surprisingly strong retail sales for January. The key rate rose to 4.62% on Wed. (Feb. 15), approaching its previous peak — 4.72% in November.

Antarctica’s “Doomsday Glacier” may be vulnerable to accelerated melting from climate change, which would raise sea levels to the point of devastating coastal communities, new research advises. Two reports highlight “a very nuanced and complex picture,” says Peter Davis, an oceanographer at the British Antarctic Survey and a lead author of a new paper. “The glacier is still in trouble,” Davis said in a statement. “What we have found is that despite small amounts of melting there is still rapid glacier retreat, so it seems that it doesn’t take a lot to push the glacier out of balance.”