Macro Briefing: 16 December 2022

* Senate passes bill to avoid end-of-week government shutdown
* Russia continues to attack Ukraine with missile barrage
* US jobless claims fall to 3-month low, highlight tight labor market
* Eurozone economic contraction eased in December via PMI survey data
* European Central Bank hikes interest rates, warns of more to come
* NY Fed Mfg Index declined in December but outlook is relatively bright
* Philly Fed Mfg Index slumps to lowest level since May 2020
* US industrial output fell in November, weighed down by fall in manufacturing
* US Q4 GDP nowcast revised down to +2.8% via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US retail sales fell more than expected in November:

Third US stock market rally this year appears to be failing… again:

Majority of voters think the economy will be in worse shape in 2023 than it is now, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll. The economic pessimism is heavily skewed toward Republicans: 83% of GOP voters expect the economy to worsen vs. slightly more than half of independents see trouble ahead, while only 22% of Democrats do.