Macro Briefing: 16 August 2023

* Fed official says “I think we’re a long way away from cutting rates”
* US real Treasury yields approach 14-year high
* China home prices drop for second month in July as sector’s headwinds build
* US homebuilder sentiment eases in August–first setback in 10 months
* New York Fed manufacturing activity fell more than forecast in August
* US retail sales rise more than forecast in July, advancing for fourth month:

China at increasing risk of growing by less than its 5% target this year, economists advise. “Prolonged weakness in property construction will add to destocking pressures in the industrial space and depress consumption demand as well,” writes Tao Wang, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank, in a research note. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at consulting firm Teneo, notes: “A tepid response to the cratering housing market would indicate that the top leadership’s reduced emphasis on economic growth — in favor of priorities like national security and technological self-sufficiency — is more far-reaching than we anticipated. Our base case is that policymakers will significantly escalate housing stimulus in coming months, leading to improving sales and construction volumes by year end.”