Macro Briefing: 15 November 2023

* House passes bill to avert government shutdown
* Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet today in San Francisco
* Odds appear to rise for US soft-landing economic scenario
* China retail sales and industrial output in Oct rise more than expected
* More disinflation pressure expected for housing, expert predicts
* US consumer inflation eased in year-over-year terms through October:

Fed funds futures continue to expect the Federal Reserve will leave its target rate unchanged at the next three policy meetings, but analysts forecast cuts at some point in 2024 after news that October inflation continued to ease. “The market’s telling you they expect the Fed to start easing sooner rather than later,” says Charles Schwab chief fixed income strategist Kathy Jones. “I would guess early 2024.” For the moment, however, futures are still pricing in moderate odds that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the first two policy meetings for next year.