Macro Briefing: 15 February 2023

* China says it will ‘take countermeasures’ against US in balloon saga
* European Union bans sales of gas-powered cars starting in 2035
* ‘Earnings recession’ expected for US companies
* Small US business sentiment ticks up but remains below 49-year average
* Logistics managers warn of persistent inflation risk in supply chains
* Rally in emerging markets faces headwinds as US economy remains resilient
* Aggressive regulatory actions from US authorities rattle crypto markets
* US consumer inflation’s one-year trend continued to ease in January:

Relatively higher allocations to bonds look attractive in the current environment, advises BlackRock’s iShares ETF division: “While below its 2022 peak of around 4.35%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note currently sits at 3.46%. Importantly, the 2-year U.S. Treasury bill is even higher – hovering around 4.20%. after starting 2022 at 0.80%.4 This means investors can now achieve yield targets at much lower levels of equity risk than in years past, underscoring the enhanced role that bonds can play in an investors’ overall portfolio. In a ‘higher for longer’ environment, investors can earn a healthy coupon in high-quality fixed income without taking on too much interest rate risk at yield levels not seen since 2007.”