Macro Briefing: 14 November 2024

US consumer inflation edges up to 2.6%, marking first pickup in pricing pressure since March. The core reading of inflation (excluding energy and food) held steady at a 3.3% pace. “Progress on inflation has started to stall,” says Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “The time is fast approaching when the Fed will signal that the pace of rate cuts will slow further, perhaps to an every-other-meeting pace starting in 2025.”

Republicans win control of House. The victory was officially confirmed on Wednesday and completes a GOP victory sweep over both chambers of Congress and the White House after Donald Trump’s election victory.

US household debt reached an all-time high in the third quarter, the New York Federal Reserve reports. The share of credit card balances more than 30 days past due hit 11.1%, the highest since early 2012 while mortgage delinquencies edged up slightly but were still near their two-decade lows.

Eurozone industrial output fell in September, highlighting the currency bloc’s fragile economy recovery as exporters prepare for the possibility of higher US tariffs implemented by the incoming Trump administration. Year-on-year, industrial production declined by 2.8% in the Eurozone.

The US Dollar Index continued to rise on Wednesday, advancing to a one-year high. “The risk is that the US dollar – which is expensive already – becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial instability,” writes a senior research fellow at Chatham House. “The rise in the U.S. dollar reflects how markets have priced in Trump’s inflationary policy agenda, which primarily includes tax cuts and tariffs,” advises Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar in a research note.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.