Macro Briefing: 13 October 2022

* Russia continues widespread attacks on Ukraine with drones
* Fed officials expect higher interest rates to persist, according to Fed minutes
* OPEC+ oil supply cuts may be “tipping point for a global economy,” IEA warns
* Capital spending cuts by world’s leading chip firm are warning for tech sector
* Chip firm Intel planning major layoffs, a warning for the PC market
* Wholesale prices in the US rose more than forecast in September
* Business inflation outlook steady at 3.3% in October via Atlanta Fed survey
* US Treasury real (inflation-adjusted) yields remain close to 12-year highs:

The weak performance of semiconductor stocks offers an implied forecast of lower prices ahead for the stock market overall, writes Rocky White, senior quantitative analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “The semiconductor index has been a dependable indicator for stocks going forward,” he advises. “When SMH, the semiconductor ETF, underperforms by a lot over a six-month period, it has paid off to bet on downside for stocks over the next few months. When SMH has beaten the S&P 500 by a lot over a six-month period, it has made sense to bet on further gains.”