Macro Briefing: 13 February 2025

US headline consumer inflation continued to accelerate, rising 3.0% in January vs. the year-ago level — the highest since last June. “The long national nightmare of inflation isn’t over yet for consumers, businesses, and investors,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, in a research note on Wednesday. “There could be some seasonality that pushes prices up at a faster clip in January, but today the news for [Federal Reserve] officials is all bad.” Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, notes: “The ‘wait and see’ Fed is going to be waiting longer than anticipated after a red-hot January CPI inflation report. “This report puts the final nail in the coffin for the rate cut cycle, which we believe is over.”

President Trump says he and Russian President Putin have agreed to begin negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine. Several European countries responded by saying that “Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations.”

Reciprocal tariffs may be announced by President Trump as early as today ahead of his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday. Earlier in the week the president said Trump that he will impose reciprocal tariffs on “every country” that raises import duties on the US. “Very simply it’s if they charge us, we charge them.”

US State Department planning to buy $400 armored vehicles from Tesla, Elon Musk’s EV company. Musk currently heads the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) that was created by President Trump with an executive order.

“Systematic asset allocation has several advantages, especially for investors who prioritize discipline, risk management, and long-term returns,” writes Andrew Willms, CEO of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager that is adviser to The Brinsmere Funds. “Academic research and real-world results show that, when implemented with discipline and thoughtful design, systematic asset allocation can be a highly effective investment approach—particularly in uncertain and volatile markets.”

The US 10-year Treasury yield shot higher yesterday following hotter-than-expected inflation data for January. The benchmark rate rose to 4.63%, the highest in nearly three weeks. The “stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC’s cautious approach to easing,” said Whitney Watson, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, in a statement.

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