Macro Briefing: 11 May 2023

* Yellen doubts Biden administration can avoid default without Congress
* Migrant influx to US from Mexico surges as pandemic-era law ends
* China and US debt-ceiling risk expected to dominate G7 finance meeting
* Republican-led states move to falls to near-zero pace, slowest in two years
* SoftBank suffers record $32 billion loss for its Vision Fund
* US consumer inflation ticked down to 4.9% annual rate in April:

Fed funds futures pricing in high probability that Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes at next FOMC meeting on June 14. “We expect the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at its current level for the foreseeable future and for inflation to slow further in the months ahead as supply pressures continue to ease and demand growth weakens,” Wells Fargo’s economics team wrote on Wednesday.