Macro Briefing: 11 February 2025

Trump announces 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. The US is the world’s largest importer of steel — the top three suppliers: Canada, Brazil and Mexico. The metals are key components in various industries, including transportation, construction and packaging. The levies will take effect on March 4.

Economists expect sticky inflation to persist in tomorrow’s January report on consumer prices. FactSet’s consensus estimates the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.9% last month.

Gold prices continue to rise, hitting another record high on Tuesday, reaching $2,934 an ounce on Monday. “Uncertainty and unpredictability about Trump’s presidency could sweeten appetite for gold,” says Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM.

Elon Musk leads investor group with $97 billion offer to buy control of OpenAI. If successful, the Musk-led group will oversee the artificial intelligence startup behind ChatGPT.

Consumer inflation expectations held steady in January, according to a survey published by the New York Fed. “The consumers are dug in, so, you know, inflation expectations are now kind of maintaining around 3%. That’s a percent higher than the Fed’s target of 2%,” says Rice University’s Zach Bethune.

The US Small Business Optimism Index fell in January, but remains above its average reading for the past half century. “Overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise,” says NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.