Macro Briefing: 10 October 2023

* IMF: world economy has lost momentum due to higher interest rates, but…
* IMF raises US growth forecast for 2023
* Israel shuts down Tamar offshore natural gas field after Hamas attack
* China reportedly considering new stimulus to boost slowing economy
* China’s Country Garden property developer says it may not repay debts
* Fed officials say rise in bond yields may allow Fed to forego more rate hikes:

Fannie Mae’s survey finds record high level of respondents say now isn’t a good time to buy a house. “Mortgage rates persistently over 7 percent appear to be deepening the malaise consumers feel about the home purchase market,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and chief economist. “In fact, high mortgage rates surpassed high home prices as the top reason why consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a home, a survey first. Notably, the share of consumers expressing pessimism about homebuying conditions hit a new survey high in September, with 84% now indicating that it’s a bad time to buy a home. On the sell side, respondents also listed unfavorable mortgage rates as the top reason why they believe it’s a bad time to sell a home. This indicates to us that many homeowners are probably not eager to give up their ‘locked-in’ lower mortgage rates anytime soon, but it also may reflect the worry of some homeowners that sale values might be suppressed slightly if the pool of qualified homebuyers is constrained by elevated mortgage rates.”