Macro Briefing: 10 October 2022

* Russia launches wave of missile strikes across Ukraine
* This week’s consumer inflation report for September is in focus
* US adds more restrictions on sales of computer chip technology to China
* Will the Fed-engineered economic slide be deeper than necessary?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: oil production cuts are a threat to global economy
* Resilient labor market suggests Fed’s inflation-fighting policies will persist
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller says housing correction could deepen
* Core inflation still rising, says chief economic adviser at Allianz
* US payrolls rise a solid 263,000 in September:

Investors warily eye upcoming earning reports after sharp losses in stock market. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Analysts are forecasting 2.4% growth in third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, according to FactSet. The small share of S&P 500 companies that have already unveiled their results have reported earnings that in aggregate are only 0.4% higher than a year earlier. Four of every five of those companies have seen their shares fall in the days surrounding their reports, the data provider shows. ‘The picture that they’re painting, I would say it’s not a very good one,'” says Nadia Lovell, senior US equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

It’s time to rethink expectations for a pivot in the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking policy, advises Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Investments. “Let’s begin by throwing out projecting an end of Fed fund rate increases based upon inflation, unemployment, or other macroeconomic factors. The end of Fed tightening will come when something breaks and the Fed will have no choice but to reliquefy the system, an event which I would expect before year end, and most likely before the end of the World Series,” he writes. “The strains are already great, and as Scotty famously told Kirk, ‘I dannae if she can take anymore, Captain!’ In the short run, a Fed pivot will be good for bonds and risk assets, which are cheap at today’s prices. No one is going to ring a bell when the Fed is forced to pivot. Investors should focus more on value opportunities which abound and stop licking their wounds and trying to pick the bottom.”