Macro Briefing: 1 October 2024

Israel launches ground war into Lebanon. The incursion is a “limited, localized and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said in a statement.
Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Gulf coast go on strike. AP reports: “Supply chain experts say consumers won’t see an immediate impact from the strike because most retailers stocked up on goods, moving ahead shipments of holiday gift items. But if it goes more than a few weeks, a work stoppage would significantly snarl the nation’s supply chain, potentially leading to higher prices and delays in goods reaching households and businesses.”
The US stock market rose on Monday, setting a new record closing price, based on the S&P 500 Index: “Everything is about the growth side of the economy, and everything is about the consumer,” says Stuart Kaiser, Citi head of US equity trading strategy. “Any data that suggests consumer spending is holding in and you’re not seeing the weakness that people are worried that the Fed is worried about, I think that’s all going to be positive for equity markets.”

Fed Chairman Powell said more interest-rate cuts are possible. “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” he advised at a conference on Monday.
A small fraction of US homes changed hands this year, according to a report from Redfin. The 2.5% turnover rate is the lowest in at least 30 years. “What this data tells us is that the housing market in 2024 has been really frozen,” says Chen Zhao, head of Redfin’s economic research.
Despite escalating tension in the Middle East, oil prices continue to fall. Analysts say softer demand is weighing on prices. FT reports: the downside bias in oil is partly due to “softer realized and expected demand” from China and better than expected oil inventories, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

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