Macro Briefing: 1 August 2024

* Fed leaves rates unchanged; Powell says rate cut is ‘on the table’
* US wage growth continues to cool eases to 4-year low in Q2
* US pending home sales surge in June
* Chicago PMI dips deeper into contraction terrain in July
* US private employment hiring in July slows to lowest since January:

The US money-supply trend continues to forecast disinflation, observes a new research note from TMC Research, a division of The Milwaukee Company: “The M2 trend tends to anticipate annual changes in CPI. Accordingly, the sharply lower money-supply change (roughly flat vs. the year-ago level) forms the basis for expecting more disinflation.”