Gold rose to another record high on Monday, increasing to $3,124 an ounce. The precious metal has rallied 19.1% so far in 2025.

Trump’s tariffs are set to start on April 2, but details on fuzzy at best. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday said that the President would announce the details. “The only near-certainty is that the effective US tariff rate is heading to its highest level since the 1940s,” Capitol Economics wrote in note yesterday. “That means rising inflation in the US and growing economic risks for its key trading partners.”

Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of a US recession to 35%, up from 20% previously. The Wall Street investment bank also lifted its inflation estimate, reduced its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and increased its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.

Growth returned to Texas manufacturing activity for March, based on the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 15 points to 6.0, reversing the decline posted in February.

Despite this year’s US stock market decline, 5-, 10- and 20-year trailing returns for the S&P 500 Index remain above the respective medians, reports TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager.