I’m off to Manhattan, where I’m a panelist at today’s 360 Exchange conference hosted by Bloomberg. My session focuses on volatility in macro and markets. My co-panelist is Dan Farley, chief investment officer for the investment solutions group at State Street Global Advisors. The usual routine for The Capital Spectator resumes tomorrow.
best of luck at the session. can you share your presentation so we can see what you presented? tx
Ralph,
No presentation per se, at least in terms of PowerPoint slides. Essentially, I chatted about the crucial aspect of monitoring vol in search of clues of regime change in real time. In short, a discussion that could be summed up in this post:
http://www.capitalspectator.com/analyzing-volatility-for-timely-signals-about-market-risk/
Meantime, Professor Carmen Reinhart’s comments were quite interesting–I may elaborate at some point. For now, I’ll just say that her view of history inspires her to observe that one can rationalize the low bond yields of late as a byproduct of assuming that quite a lot of the debt in the US, Europe and elsewhere will quietly fade away through time, for one reason or another. Otherwise, if you assume the debt will be fully paid off, that implies substantially higher rates. But at the moment, the market seems inclined to favor the former view.