The US economy in July expanded at a rate that’s fractionally below the historical trend, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). The monthly measure of the benchmark dipped from +0.16 in June to -0.01, or just below the zero mark that signals economic activity that matches the historical trend.

The three-month average of CFNAI also edged down last month, slipping to -0.05 from +0.09 in June. But the latest reading is still well above the -0.70 level that marks the start of recessions, according to guidelines published by the Chicago Fed.

Nonetheless, the macro trend lost a bit of forward momentum at the start of the third quarter, according to today’s review of the hard data from across the economic landscape. “Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in July,” the Chicago Fed advised in a press release.

The July profile of economic activity via CFNAI’s three-month average confirms last week’s analysis via The Capital Spectator’s US Business Cycle Risk Report, which advised that moderate growth remained intact and recession risk continued to print at a low level in July.