Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days for most countries and hikes import fees for China. What hasn’t change is that uncertainty for the global economy continues. No one’s quite sure what will happen after the 90-day pause. One source of confusion is how the administration will negotiate dozens of bilateral trade deals. “That is a huge task to negotiate simultaneously with that many trading partners over that many issues,” said Greta Peisch, who was general counsel for the U.S. trade representative’s office during the Biden administration.

House Republicans canceled a vote on on the Senate’s budget resolution Wednesday night after a handful of GOP members said they would oppose the legislation. Given the razor-thin GOP margin, Speaker Mike Johnson pulled the vote, leaving the path ahead uncertain for the spending deal.

US stocks surge after Trump announces pause on tariffs. The S&P 500 shot up 9.5% on Wednesday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 12.1%. “The market’s move upward is violent, and speaks to how badly the market was looking for clarity on this [tariffs] issue,” said Chris Brigati, chief investment officer at SWBC, an investment firm.

Goldman Sachs dials down its estimate of US recession risk after President Trump announced a pause on tariffs. “We are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession,” a group of researchers led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Earlier in the day the group said that they forecast a GDP loss of 1% this year and a 65% probability of the economy entering a recession in the next twelve months.

Although Trump paused the tariffs, some analysts worry the damage is already done. “While there has been understandable relief as evidence of a Trump put reemerged following the extreme market conditions that we highlighted yesterday morning, the genie is still out of the bottle on policy unpredictability,” a group of Deutsche Bank Research’s economists and strategists wrote in a note on Thursday.

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to rise on Wednesday, increasing to 4.36%, matching a recent peak that’s the highest since February. “Bonds are signaling that the pause is significant, yet not much has fundamentally changed,” ING rates strategists led by Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note published Thursday. “Markets will not easily forget these episodes with wide market swings and thus the demand for safe assets should remain elevated.”