US retail sales rebound less than expected in Feburary. The 0.2% rise last month marks a modest recovery from January’s steep decline. “Not a great report, but one still in positive territory despite how pessimistic consumers are about the future,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “But the main factor in consumer spending is consumer income, and that’s growing at a good rate and had an impressive leap in January.”
Slower economic growth is expected along with rising recession risk, according to the CNBC Fed Survey, fund managers, strategists and analysts. Three-quarters of respondents forecast two or more quarter-point cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.
US homebuilder sentiment falls to 7-month low in March. “Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate,” reports the National Association of Home Builders.
Gold continues to rise, trading at a record high above $3,028 an ounce. Factors said to be driving the price for the haven higher recently include an escalation in Middle East tensions and concern that the US economy is slowing down.
Business activity dropped significantly in New York State in March, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The decline marks the lowest level in more than a year. “I went back just the last 10 years to see what’s the correlation, and it does suggest that when we see some changes happening in the New York area, that tends to be reflective also at the national level,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.
Stagflation risk may be rising as the Federal Reserve prepares to release a new policy statement tomorrow. “Although the Fed is unlikely to change interest rates this week, it’s on high alert for higher inflation, softer economic activity unfolding at the same time – stagflation risk,” reports a research note from TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager.
