President Trump announced that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will begin today. In addition, tariffs on China will increase from 10% to 20%. China and Canada have already quickly announced retaliatory measures.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s first-quarter nowcast for US economic activity was revised sharply down for a second time on Monday. The current estimate is now -2.8%.

The risk of a global recession is rising due to a widespread tariff war, predicts the International Chamber of Commerce. “Our deep concern is that this could be the start of a downward spiral that puts us in 1930s trade-war territory,” said Andrew Wilson, deputy secretary-general of the ICC, which promotes global business and trade.

US manufacturing sector recorded a modest gain for second month in February, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. An alternative survey-based indicator for the sector — US Manufacturing PMI — shows a stronger recovery for the sector last month.

US construction spending slipped 0.2% in January, according to the US Census Bureau. For the year-over-year change, however, the pace remained moderately higher at a 3.3% increase.

The 60/40 stock/bond benchmark portfolio continues to defy forecasts of its death, according to a note from TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, a wealth manager: “Market results so far in 2025 have only strengthened our view by reaffirming the resilience of this basic measure that tracks returns for asset class diversification.”