Macro Briefing: 23 December 2024

US consumer spending increased in November, reaffirming the economy’s resiliance. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% last month, edging up from a 0.3% gain in the previous month. “The economy continues to grow from strong consumer demand as income growth and the wealth effect from higher portfolio values give consumers capacity to spend,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “Inflation was more benign than expected but the stickiness of some categories supports the Fed’s hesitancy to materially lower rates next year.”

A US government shutdown was narrowly avoided on Friday, but the political drama underscores the spending battles ahead for Republicans once they take control of the White and Congress next month. President-elect Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda is in question after the GOP’s intraparty fighting over last week’s clashes over such issues as raising the debt ceiling.

Key US inflation measure holds steady in November, rising 2.4% vs. the year-ago level, based on the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8%. Both metrics continue to print above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Sticky inflation appeared to be a little less stuck this morning,” says Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade Morgan Stanley. “The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in lower than expected, which may take some of the sting out of the market’s disappointment with the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday.”

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde says the eurozone is “very close” to achieving the central bank’s 2% medium-term inflation goal. “We’re getting very close to that stage when we can declare that we have sustainably brought inflation to our medium-term 2%,” she told the FT.

Honda and Nissan are in talks to merge by 2026, a sign of rising pressures on auto firms from Chinese electric-vehicle companies. “The rise of Chinese automakers and new players has changed the car industry quite a lot,” says Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe, citing technological trends of electrification and autonomous driving.

The US Treasury yield curve is now un-inverted across maturities. In other words, yields are higher for longer maturities, the normal state of affairs in the bond market. A bellwether metric tells the story: the 10yr/3mo spread is positive for the first time in over 2 years:

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