Macro Briefing: 11 July 2023

* Sweden receives greenlight to join NATO after Turkey gives approval
* Fed officials say higher interest rates still needed to tame inflation
* Is China’s deflation risk a threat to world economy?
* German business sentiment weakens more than expected in July
* China’s economic troubles are boosting other Asian markets
* Fed Vice Chair Barr proposes stricter capital regulations on banks
* Major stock indices set “traps” for investors
* Should emerging markets be in your portfolio? “Maybe, but handle with care”:

New York Fed President says “I don’t have a recession in my forecast.” In an interview with the Financial Times he explains: “I have pretty slow growth. Obviously, recessions are very hard to predict. I still think that is the right base case, but again, that will really depend on all the factors influencing especially what is happening in inflation and do we see what I predict to happen, which is overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation come down to around 3 per cent over the four quarters of this year and then 2.5 per cent next year. In that case, then obviously you don’t need to have a higher unemployment rate or further costs to the economy.”