Macro Briefing: 2 December 2022

* Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows signs of slowing in October
* US consumer spending accelerated in October
* OPEC+ considers deeper oil output cuts
* Construction spending in US fell sharply in October due to weak homebuilding
* Atlanta Fed’s Q4 GDP nowcast revised down sharply to still-solid +2.8%
* Global manufacturing conditions deteriorated again in November
* US mfg activity contracts in November via ISM Mfg Index:

US gasoline price falls, trading near lows for 2022. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Gas prices are well below record highs hit earlier this year. Analysts think they could fall even farther.” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for OPIS, says “the next 60 days look really, really hospitable for consumers.”

US will narrowly escape a recession, predicts Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist. “It’s going to be a struggle. It’s going to feel uncomfortable. But I think we are going to thread the needle.” He notes that “the data over the last couple of months have been better than I would have thought. None of the financial market indicators suggest we have a recession dead ahead.”