Macro Briefing: 1 November 2022

* Brazil President Bolsonaro remains silent after election loss
* Delta Air Lines pilots vote to authorize a strike
* The worst is yet to come for housing market, says homebuilders
* China manufacturing activity contracts for third month in October
* China workers flee Foxconn’s giant iPhone plant amid Covid outbreak
* US Circuit Court blocks sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House
* Texas manufacturing output grows but new orders slide and outlook worsens
* Chicago manufacturing PMI weakens further in October
* US 10-year Treasury yield near 14-year high ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision:

Bond-market signal favored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggests US economy is close to recession. The implied 3-month Treasury yield curve —  expected level of 3-month Treasury yield in 18 months less current level — is close to inverting, a warning sign for the economy. “Policy rates are entering restrictive levels while there have been some soft patches of economic data of late,” says Frances Cheung, a rates strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “At some point, the Fed needs to move to smaller rate hikes, and this may happen at the December FOMC meeting.”

‘Autocracy risk’ takes a heavy toll on China’s stock market, which is down more than 50% since February 2021. “Investors are starting to look for the signs of autocracy risk and recognizing them like never before,” says Perth Tolle, founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. “First, it was the market’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. We’re seeing autocracy risks play out again in the latest market action surrounding China.”