Macro Briefing: 25 October 2022

* UK economic, financial turmoil await Rishi Sunak, the incoming prime minister
* World in ‘global energy crisis’, says head of the International Energy Agency
* Fed’s rate hikes will pause when inflation halves, economist predict
* Recession is price to pay for taming inflation, says JP Morgan president
* China’s yuan falls to 15-year low against the US dollar on Tuesday
* China probably won’t bail out its ailing property sector, says economist
* US economic activity contracted in October via PMI survey data
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index indicates “steady” US growth in September:

Britain’s new prime minister will be the first with a former career in the hedge fund industry. “Rishi understands the working of financial markets and levers that generate wealth for an economy,” says Crossbridge Capital Chief Investment Officer Manish Singh.

US 30-year mortgage rate expected to fall to 5.4% by end of 2023, according to a new forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Next year will be particularly challenging for the US and global economies,” says Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology. “The sharp increase in interest rates this year – a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation, will lead to an equally sharp slowdown in the economy, matching the downturn that is happening right now in the housing market.”