Macro Briefing: 16 September 2022

* World Bank sees higher risk of 2023 recession amid global rate hikes
* Putin admits China has ‘questions and concerns’ over Russia’s war in Ukraine
* China retail sales, industrial output rise more than expected
* US industrial output dips in August but manufacturing activity turns up
* US jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week
* Worker strikes on the rise amid new demands for pay raises
* Gold falls to 2020 pandemic levels as rate hikes take a toll
* Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell in September
* New York Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in September
* US retail sales picked up in August, posting upside surprise:

Is China’s economy starting to recover from the recent slowdown? Better-than-expected numbers on retail sales and industrial production for August offer hope that growth is starting to rebound. But one analyst remains cautious. “While today’s data are better than expected, it’s unlikely to change the prevailing pessimism toward China, given the multiple headwinds underway including zero-Covid, property rout and the lack of decisive policy moves before the Party Congress,” says Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

Majority of Americans say incomes failed to keep up with inflation, according to a new survey from Bankrate. “Inflation that has run at the highest levels in more than four decades has stripped buying power away from households of all walks of life,” says Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “Even half of those receiving a pay raise, getting a promotion, or taking on new responsibilities said that higher pay falls short of the increase in household expenses.”