Macro Briefing: 14 September 2022

* US inflation showing signs of becoming more persistent
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield above 3.79%, highest since 2007
* Xi and Putin will discuss Ukraine war at face-to-face meeting
* China reaps energy windfall after West rejects Russian supplies
* US consumer confidence rose in August, largest improvement since March 2021
* Americans suffer two years in a row of flat or declining household income
* EU upholds antitrust ruling against Google’s parent company Alphabet
* UK inflation rate unexpectedly eases to still-high 9.9%
* Eurozone industrial output falls sharply in July
* US consumer inflation slows less than forecast in August:

Fed funds futures pricing in 30%-plus probability of a 100-basis-points rate hike at Sep. 21 FOMC meeting. “We continue to believe markets underappreciate just how entrenched US inflation has become and the magnitude of response that will likely be required from the Fed to dislodge it,” advise economists at Nomura in a report to clients.

Real US spending growth slows in August, according to Morning Consult’s analysis. Ahead of this month’s data releases for U.S. retail sales and personal consumption expenditures, the research firm’s “latest findings suggest that after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was flat in August.”