Macro Briefing: 7 September 2022

* Antarctica’s melting ‘Doomsday glacier’ could raise sea levels several feet
* US tech firms receiving gov’t funds barred from building tech factories in China
* Global manufacturing activity contracts in Aug–first decline since June 2020
* China’s exports growth eased in August
* Putin calls for review of UN-brokered grain deal
* German industrial output continued falling in July
* US Services PMI shows sector contraction deepened in Aug, but…
* ISM Services Index paints a much brighter picture: moderate, steady growth:

Stronger US dollar has repercussions around the world. “A stronger dollar generally comes with higher short and long-term interest rates in the US, or with stress in global markets and a flight to the dollar’s perceived safety,” says Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Those tighter financial conditions cause developed economies everywhere to slow.”

US labor market remains unusually tight, advise analysts at UniCredit. “Labor market tightness in the US remains intense, with almost two job openings for every unemployed person in July (the latest available figure),” the bank explains in a research note. “This is the result of both demand and supply factors. Vacancies for jobs that could start within 30 days remain at exceptionally high levels – almost two times higher than the 2015-2019 average.”

Will a Eurozone recession and softer China growth slow the pace of Fed rate hikes? “The abrupt slowdown in China’s economy, combined with an impending recession in the eurozone, may help ease inflation pressures, as is the strong dollar,” advises Panos Mourdoukoutas, an economics professor at Long Island University Post. “And that could be a game changer for the Federal Reserve, as lower inflation will move the U.S. economy in the desired direction. As a result, the nation’s central banks may have to moderate the pace of interest rate hikes and eventually reverse them, setting the stage for an economic recovery.