Macro Briefing: 25 August 2022

* Biden announces student loan forgiveness plan
* California expected to ban sales of new gasoline cars starting in 2035
* China announces more stimulus to support economy
* German leading indicator forecasts continued weakness for economy
* Despite war in Ukraine, Russian goods continue to reach US
* Pending home sales fell again in July but economist says a bottom may be near
* US home prices fell in July–first monthly slide in three years
* New orders for US durable goods flat in July as core orders continue rising:

US bond yields rebound in August, implying economic growth will endure.

The potential for a market shock triggered by tomorrow’s speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is “sky high”, advises Bloomberg: “Stocks, bonds, commodities — everything is moving in lockstep, their unified swings turning almost exclusively on views as to whether the central bank will cause a recession. The obsession with economic data and remarks by Fed officials have driven a measure of cross-asset correlation tracked by Barclays Plc to almost double, putting it among the highest levels of the past 17 years.”