The recent downshift in estimates for US economic output in the first quarter persists, based on the revised median nowcast for a set of analytics compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The sluggish median estimate for next month’s release of the official Q1 GDP report suggests that the economy will continue growing in the first three months of 2025, but the slide in the past few weeks highlights an increased vulnerability in Q2 and beyond.
Monthly Archives: March 2025
Macro Briefing: 18 March 2025
US retail sales rebound less than expected in Feburary. The 0.2% rise last month marks a modest recovery from January’s steep decline. “Not a great report, but one still in positive territory despite how pessimistic consumers are about the future,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “But the main factor in consumer spending is consumer income, and that’s growing at a good rate and had an impressive leap in January.”
Risk-On Sentiment Falters For Global Asset Allocation Strategies
The appetite for risk has taken a hit in recent weeks, although the worst of the selling has, so far, been contained to US stocks, on a year-to-date basis. The rest of the primary markets around the world, by contrast, are still posting gains so far in 2025, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Mar. 14). The relative strength in markets outside the US has helped global asset allocation strategies remain relatively resilient. But with the mood souring due to the rising risk of a global trade war, confidence about the near-term future is vulnerable.
Macro Briefing: 17 March 2025
US consumer sentiment continued to slide in March, based on the University of Michigan’s survey. This month’s decline was broad based across groups by age, education, income, wealth, geography and political affiliation. “Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024,” the director for the survey writes. “While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets.”
Book Bits: 15 March 2025
● How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them
Barry Ritholtz
Interview with author via Prof G podcast
Barry Ritholtz, the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and the host of the Masters in Business podcast, joins Scott to discuss his new book, How Not to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors that Destroy Wealth and How to Avoid Them. They unpack why diversification is both boring and sexy, whether the U.S. market is overvalued, and if the alternative investment industry is one of the biggest grifts in economic history.
Looking For Safe Havens During A Stock Market Correction
The US stock market fell on Thursday, Mar. 13, closing 10.1% below its previous peak – a decline that many analysts define as a “correction,” which is a slide ranging from 10% to 20%. A “bear market,” according to Wall Street-speak, arrives when a decline exceeds 20%. The “B” word doesn’t apply, at least not yet, but stocks are clearly on the defensive. Yet some corners of global markets are holding up if not rallying. Here’s a quick review that highlights a select list of recent winners, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close.
Macro Briefing: 14 March 2025
US stock market falls into correction territory. The S&P 500 Index closed yesterday (Mar. 13) with a 10.1% decline from its previous peak, which was a record high. “These tariff wars are intensifying before they’re abating. It just adds to unpredictability and uncertainty, and that’s a negative for stocks, obviously,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 13 March 2025
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield ticked up in February to the highest spread since 2008. The estimate is based on the average “fair value” calculation via three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 13 March 2025
US consumer inflation eased more than expected in February. The Consumer Price Index ticked lower, rising 2.8% last month vs. the year-ago level. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy for a clearer measure of the trend, edged down to 3.1%. Although the softer pace is welcome news after months of signs of “sticky” inflation, the February data “does not incorporate what is to come and what already has happened for tariffs,” said Kevin Gordon, senor investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “The vagaries and uncertainties associated with policy are still a much stronger force in the market than anything CPI-related or in terms of one data point.”
Treasury Market Pricing In Higher Odds For Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve may continue to be patient before deciding on the next change in monetary policy, but the Treasury market isn’t waiting and has been rapidly adjusting to changing expectations for the economy that reflect forecasts of weaker growth, or worse.