It’s been a rough year for the US stock market so far, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at year-to-date returns for energy and healthcare shares, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Mar. 21). Both equity sectors are posting strong gains in 2025, marking them as standout winners when the market overall is nursing a moderate loss.
Daily Archives: March 24, 2025
Macro Briefing: 24 March 2025
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted again, based on the 10-year less 3-month spread. The difference between maturities was a slightly negative -0.03. Historically, a negative spread implies that recession risk is elevated for the near term, although this widely followed indicator doesn’t have a perfect record. The only blemishes on its record are the 1998 and mid-2022 inversions, which produced no subsequent economic recessions. Most recently, the curve inverted in 2022 and 2023 without leading to a recession.
