As new presidential terms go, this one’s off to a rocky start for the economic outlook, thanks largely to disruptive tariff plans that risk triggering a global trade war. Perhaps most surprising is that the blowback so far has been mostly self-inflicted. Unforced errors due to policy shocks are rare, but President Trump’s norms-busting behavior is forging yet another new precedent on this front.
Daily Archives: March 11, 2025
Macro Briefing: 11 March 2025
US Small Business Optimism fell for a fourth straight month in February, reports NFIB. The latest reading “is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December.” The Uncertainty Index that’s part of the survey rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading. “Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons,” says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.”
