US job openings rebounded moderately in January. The government reports 7.74 million available positions, signaling relative stability for hiring from US employers. The data, however, does not yet reflect the current headwinds blowing in the economy related to Trump policy shifts in recent weeks. “Unfortunately, the report tells us nothing about how companies will respond to the threat of tariffs and rising uncertainty, and this could take several months to unfold,” says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital.

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As new presidential terms go, this one’s off to a rocky start for the economic outlook, thanks largely to disruptive tariff plans that risk triggering a global trade war. Perhaps most surprising is that the blowback so far has been mostly self-inflicted. Unforced errors due to policy shocks are rare, but President Trump’s norms-busting behavior is forging yet another new precedent on this front.

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US Small Business Optimism fell for a fourth straight month in February, reports NFIB. The latest reading “is the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December.” The Uncertainty Index that’s part of the survey rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading. “Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons,” says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall.”

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The year started out on a solid footing for the economy and the financial markets were pricing in expectations for sustained economic growth. But a lot has changed since the year’s optimistic opening. The changing fortunes of the bond market tell the tale.

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US nonfarm payrolls picked up in February, rising moderately vs. the number of hirings in January. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month, up from 125,000 in the previous month. “Job growth is holding steady, but headwinds are building,” says Morningstar senior US economist Preston Caldwell. The government’s surveys have “likely yet to register more than a sliver of the full impact from federal government layoff. That should change in next month’s job report.”

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● The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West
Alexander C. Karp and Nicholas W. Zamiska
Review via The New Republic
Karp… with his head of corporate affairs, Nicholas W. Zamiska. The Technological Republic attempts to distill the argument Karp has been making for years: that, since the country’s tech scene is historically a product of the national security state, Silicon Valley executives and engineers should shed their compunctions about working with the military and dedicate themselves to ensuring another century of American hard-power supremacy. It’s an argument with a growing audience. Thanks to a mix of factors—a massive increase in venture capital investment in defense and a slowdown in broader venture activity; new Pentagon initiatives designed to bridge the fabled “Valley of Death” between tech companies and the Pentagon; a tech workforce cowed by layoffs and firings—the era of Silicon Valley walkouts, open letters, public employee protests, and genuflecting CEOs is, for now at least, mostly over.

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The US stock market has turned negative on the year, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at results for the low-volatility equity risk factor. Using a set of ETFs to track this space shows that the low-vol risk premium is outperforming the rest of the field by a wide margin in 2025 through Thursday’s close (Mar. 6).

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US jobless claims fell last week, returning to a level that suggests an upbeat outlook for the labor market. New filings for unemployment benefits fell to 221,000, holding into the 200,000-250,000 range that’s prevailed in recent history.

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In a striking reversal of fortunes, equities in developed markets ex-US are now leading the major asset classes in 2025 while US shares are posting a modest loss year to date, based on a set of ETFs through Wednesday’s close (Mar. 5).

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Hiring by US companies slowed sharply in February, according to the ADP Employment Report. Employers added 77,000 workers last month, well below expectations and January’s 186,000 increase. “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

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