The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield rebounded sharply in January, rising to its highest level in nine months, based on a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com. Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected inflation data for last month suggests that the market premium will remain elevated for longer than recently expected.
Daily Archives: February 13, 2025
Macro Briefing: 13 February 2025
US headline consumer inflation continued to accelerate, rising 3.0% in January vs. the year-ago level — the highest since last June. “The long national nightmare of inflation isn’t over yet for consumers, businesses, and investors,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, in a research note on Wednesday. “There could be some seasonality that pushes prices up at a faster clip in January, but today the news for [Federal Reserve] officials is all bad.” Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, notes: “The ‘wait and see’ Fed is going to be waiting longer than anticipated after a red-hot January CPI inflation report. “This report puts the final nail in the coffin for the rate cut cycle, which we believe is over.”
