The long-run expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained above 7% for a third straight month in January, ticking higher vs. December’s estimate. The revised forecast, based on three models defined below, continues to reflect the highest return outlook in recent history for this multi-asset-class global benchmark.
Daily Archives: February 4, 2025
Macro Briefing: 04 February 2025
President Trump pauses tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days while China announces its own duties on certain US exports. Beijing also says it is adding two American firms to its so-called unreliable entities list, saying they “violated normal market trading principles” and is investigating Google. “These moves are warnings that China intends to harm US interests if need be but still give China the option to back down,” writes Julian Evans Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in a note.
