January is shaping up to be a rough month for the major asset classes, with one exception: commodities. Using a set of ETF proxies, a broad measure of commodities is posting a solid gain year to date. In sharp relief, the rest of the field is mostly in the red, with the exception of one market that’s flat, based on trading through Jan. 14.

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US producer price inflation increased to a 3.3% year-over-year level through December. Although that’s below expectations, it’s also the fastest pace since Feb. 2023. “Better than expected is not necessarily what the Fed wants to see before easing monetary conditions into a fast-growing economy, with tariffs and tax cuts on the agenda of the incoming administration,” says Carl Weinberg, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

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